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Anatomy of A Push Poll
A number of TPM readers have written in with descriptions of the pro-Huckabee push polls done by Common Sense Issues, and we had a very good idea of how they went. But it helps to hear one. Luckily, one South Carolinian was able to record the latter half of the call, and Jeffrey Taylor, blogging at Reason, posted a link (wav).
We've transcribed the call below. Unfortunately, the man who recorded it missed the beginning, but here's how that would have gone. A male voice says "this is a call from Election Research with a 45-second survey" (sometimes it's from "Data Research" -- they're both names used by the calling firm, ccAdvertising). The voice then asks who you support. If you say Fred Thompson, you get a slew of reasons why Thompson is not half the man Mike Huckabee is. The transcription shows how that goes.
Now, there seems to be a specific question about state politicians at the end of each call that varies from state to state. In the example below, it's about Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). In the Nevada calls, voters who said they had a favorable view of Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) were asked what they thought about Reid wanting to surrender in Iraq and hand over our freedoms to "Islamo-fascists."
Again, we'd love to hear other recordings. So if you manage to get one, please email it in to tips(at)tpmmuckraker.com.
The transcription:
Q: ...amnesty for illegal immigrants.A: No.
Q: Does the fact that during his many years in the US Senate Fred Thompson did not make solving America's illegal immigration problem a priority and by contrast Governor Huckabee has been endorsed by the founder of the Minutemen Citizens patrolling our border for Huckabee's strong stand against illegal immigration make you more likely to trust Governor Huckabee on the issue of illegal immigration?
A: No.
Q: On the issue of taxes, do you want your taxes not raised and if possible cut?
A:Yes.
Q: Does the fact that former Senator Fred Thompson refuses to sign the No New Tax pledge - that is a written promise not to raise taxes as president - and that Governor Huckabee has signed the No New Taxes pledge not to raise taxes as president, supported the Bush tax cuts, and is proposing a Fair Tax Reform that eliminates the IRS altogether make you more likely to trust Governor Huckabee on the issue of tax relief?
A: No.
Q: Do you have a favorable opinion of Senator Lindsey Graham?
A: Yes.
Q: Are you male?
A: Yes.
Q: Are you 50 years of age or older?
A: No.
Q: Thank you for your time and views. Goodbye. This survey was paid for by Common Sense Issues and not authorized by or coordinated with any candidate or campaign committee 719 306 2543.
Comments (13)
estamm wrote on January 16, 2008 7:03 PM:I've gotten push-polls like this before. Do these firms actually record and tabulate responses? Or, are these essentially just robo-calls? Just curious.
RandyR wrote on January 16, 2008 7:22 PM:
Brass wrote on January 16, 2008 7:40 PM:I thought I read that push polls were illegal in SC. I wonder why any of the candidates haven't gone to the States Attorney and stopped them. Huckabee denies being responsible but that certainly isn't credible. Time for another investigation.
Unreal. And laughably transparent. Wonder if Huckabee believes his own pollsters?
Sully18 wrote on January 16, 2008 7:59 PM:Another,in a series of sad commentaries on what the Homeland has become.This country is becoming a cruel joke.I didn`t think that people believed this kind of crap till I worked on Kucinich`s last campaign.
Anonymous wrote on January 16, 2008 9:35 PM:Is Pat Paulson or Lyndon LaRouche available? What about Harold Staussen?
The U.S.A. is soiled by these goons and their crooked minions.
"Good Christians" at work treating their brothers as they would be treated.
Stew wrote on January 16, 2008 9:54 PM:The question about Lindsey Graham is, uh, interesting, especially when it is followed by the question "are you male?" One can draw their own conclusions, of course...
Wyn wrote on January 16, 2008 10:17 PM:I was called to answer some "questions about the upcoming state elections." I asked who was calling and who was paying for the poll. The answer was a XYZ company for a local politician. But when I then agreed to answer the questions the poll-taker just hung up. I find that very odd.
On the other hand, I hang up on on so called pollsters who are more interested in giving than recieving.
P-Dawg wrote on January 16, 2008 10:55 PM:Push Poll: Are you a christian?
brian wrote on January 16, 2008 11:14 PM:Citizen: Yes
PP: Will the fact that Fred Thompson is a philandering old codger make you more likely to vote for Mike Huckabee who is a god-fearing, airport-bathroom stall-avoiding, bible-thumping, tax-cutting, god-fearing (still), straight-talkin' (sorry mccain), American?
C: NO!
========================================
PP: Are you a christian?
C: No
PP: Then you are going to hell but before you do, can you leave "our" country now?
...click.
I have been reading "How To Rig An Election" - it's worth reading.
The level of robotics in elections is rising rapidly - the tactics of eight years ago are already ancient ...
Robo-calls will soon seem quaint.
drubs wrote on January 17, 2008 1:04 AM:Endorsed by the Minute Men. Well then did the founder ever return the funds from the org? Big story in CA a few months ago don't know about the rest of the country.
enough wrote on January 17, 2008 4:59 AM:Are there legal issues with these polls?
enough wrote on January 17, 2008 5:07 AM:Is this the same Preacher Huckabee (the CHRISTIAN) who had the news conference to say that he had started to post a negative ad and then decided not to because it's just wrong--and then showed the ad anyway?
I thought so.
Is this how Christians behave?
I thought so.
kenshin wrote on January 17, 2008 9:32 PM:while this is sounding an awful lot like a push poll, this actually could be a "message testing" survey. (the message here is what attacks would be most effective) But, if they said they are not with any specific campaign, then who knows?
message testing, while also a bit underhanded, was always a legit practice, but it used to be done discretely. now, with so much attention being given to these elections, they are being brought out into the open.
the way to tell if it's a push poll is to see how many people it was given to. a regular phone survey usually is done with 400-under 2000 people, but a push poll is sent out to tens of thousands many times.
push polls often do not ask for personal specs, or not very many anyway.
push polls also do not usually provide a real way to reach the surveyors, and this one left the name and number. you'd have to call the number and ask is this is legit. if it's not, be suspicious.