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Who Will Succeed Bhutto?

Try as Nawaz Sharif might to carry the banner of Benazir Bhutto, he might not be the optimal anti-Musharraf candidate. For one thing, even if Musharraf holds a promised election, Sharif isn't eligible to run, thanks to a ruling of the Musharraf-controlled Electoral Commission. For another, there's another secular, democratic politician waiting in the wings who might resonate with this year's middle-class rejection of Musharraf.

Aitzaz Ahsan was the chief counsel for former Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, whose ouster by Musharraf on dubious charges of personal corruption proved to be the final straw for much of middle-class Pakistan. According to Pakistan expert Barnett Rubin, Ahsan has a good shot at inheriting the reins of the Pakistan People’s Party. A longtime PPP member, respected barrister and democracy advocate, Ahsan's representation of Chaudhry landed him a stint in prison when Musharraf declared emergency rule on November 3. Ahsan, not surprisingly, disagreed with the more conciliatory stance toward Musharraf that brought Bhutto back from exile earlier this year, according to Rubin.

Ahsan has an international profile as well. An old enemy of 80s-vintage dictator Zia ul-Haq, he gained global esteem for his willingness to go to jail for the sake of democracy. After his November detention, 33 U.S. Senators wrote to Musharraf demanding his release. Still, Ahsan's profile is much higher in Pakistan than it is in the United States. But shortly before Christmas, he penned this New York Times op-ed:

Last Thursday morning, I was released to celebrate the Id holidays. But that evening, driving to Islamabad to say prayers at Faisal Mosque, my family and I were surrounded at a rest stop by policemen with guns cocked and I was dragged off and thrown into the back of a police van. After a long and harrowing drive along back roads, I was returned home and to house arrest.

Every day, thousands of lawyers and members of the civil society striving for a liberal and tolerant society in Pakistan demonstrate on the streets. They are bludgeoned by the regime’s brutal police and paramilitary units. Yet they come out again the next day.

People in the United States wonder why extremist militants in Pakistan are winning. What they should ask is why does President Musharraf have so little respect for civil society — and why does he essentially have the backing of American officials?

With Ahsan a potential successor to Bhutto, those questions have a renewed salience. As does his implicit challenge to Washington to support Pakistani democracy:

How long can the leaders of the lawyers’ movement be detained? They will all be out one day. And they will neither be silent nor still.

They will recount the brutal treatment meted out to them for seeking the establishment of a tolerant, democratic, liberal and plural political system in Pakistan. They will state how the writ of habeas corpus was denied to them by the arbitrary and unconstitutional firing of Supreme and High Court justices. They will spell out precisely how one man set aside a Constitution under the pretext of an “emergency,” arrested the judges, packed the judiciary, “amended” the Constitution by a personal decree and then “restored” it to the acclaim of London and Washington.

Correction: Due to an error on my part, this post initially attributed to Husain Haqqani comments that should have been attributed to Barnett Rubin. Haqqani did not make any prognostication to me about Ahsan. I misread my own notes when writing this post, and I apologize for the mistake.


Comments (10)

discodave wrote on December 27, 2007 1:49 PM:

Benazir today...gone tomorrow

Spencer Ackerman wrote on December 27, 2007 2:21 PM:

Very classy, discodave. Be proud of yourself.

texas dem wrote on December 27, 2007 2:22 PM:

A bunch of middle-class liberals who also have a healthy and dearly-learned skepticism of Washington and London?

I guess we've found our good guys.

Goldspinner wrote on December 27, 2007 2:32 PM:

How can Bush support habeas corpus and the rule of law in Pakistan if he doesn't support it here?

theswan wrote on December 27, 2007 2:51 PM:

Mr Ahsan has a voice that is unfamiliar to us here in America, the voice of a political opposition.
He protrays Musharraf's vision of Pakistan much the same as I would BUsh's vision of America.
And those visions are not visions of Democracy but chaos to further their strangle hold on their people.

Eric Ferguson wrote on December 27, 2007 3:05 PM:

The best thing the US can do for the democratic opposition is refrain from trying to pick their new leader. Besides Bush being bound to pick the wrong person, even the right person would be discredited by US interference.

TomPaulk wrote on December 27, 2007 4:48 PM:

Aitzaz Ahsan sounds like the kind of successor we should hope to see prevail as Pakistan's next leader. But the struggle for leadersip in Pakistan, regardless of who wins it, cannot in the foreseeable future have the impact on world peace (or the lack thereof) that the 2008 elections here will have. Republican neoconservatism, one of the most dangerous cults in the world, must not be allowed to retain, let alone increase, their access to the U.S. military and its nuclear arsenal. The first logical step in preventing such a disaster is impeachment and criminal trials for those who have abused their power. Then, we need new laws that will nip in the bud, with severe criminal penalties, the aspirations of future erstwhile despots who are tempted to adopt the Bush doctines and methods. Then, and only then, can we effectively work to eliminate the threat posed by the religious idiots within and outside our country who would destroy the freedoms we hold dear.

The Seeker wrote on December 27, 2007 6:13 PM:

Why is no one mentioning the fact that Bhutto was a criminal who fleeced Pakistan? Why is no one mentioning that the US State Dept made Pakistan take her back? Did the Bush White House really think Pakistanis would allow the US to put their own Hamid Kirzai in place? This is a joke. Why are people acting concerned about her in the US? They dont know she stole billions? They dont know the Pakistani economy was far worse off with her and her husband in charge than it is under Musharaff?

Matthew wrote on December 28, 2007 6:11 AM:

It truly is madness that this women is getting any positive press at all. Could someone in the media have enough guts to not inflate a person's standing in the world just because they died. This women was a crook, and there is no honor among thieves. Thus, there should be no tears shed for a thief.

Hassan Chop wrote on December 28, 2007 10:34 AM:

While he'd be a great choice, I think that Ahsan is back under house arrest.

Amin Fahim is a longtime PPP member and ran the party while Benazir was living in exile. He might be the logical choice, although from what I've read, he wouldn't exactly be great on the campaign trail.

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