TPMmuckraker | Talking Points Memo | NYPD Report: Potential Terrorists Like Chatting Online, Hanging Out

NYPD Report: Potential Terrorists Like Chatting Online, Hanging Out

By Spencer Ackerman - August 15, 2007, 6:04PM

The New York Police Department deserves a lot of credit for trying to think through the conditions that turn someone into a jihadist, a task that suffers from lazy assumptions and insufficient empirical rigor. What its report on potential radicalization of U.S. Muslims suggests, though, is that determining patterns of behavior that indicate future terrorism is a frustrating and complex task. As a result, most of what we learn about potential homegrown jihadists is that their pre-radical behavior is... a lot like that of non-jihadists.

Contrary to its billing, the report doesn't identify actual Muslim population clusters in the U.S. that incline toward terrorism. Instead, NYPD intelligence analysts Arvin Bhatt and Mitch Silber try to construct a model, based on prominent European Muslim and U.S. Muslim terrorists and would-be terrorists, that isolates patterns indicating radicalization. They ultimately come up with a four-stage process: pre-radicalization; self-identification with jihadism; indoctrination following exposure to jihadist literature or arguments; and, finally, "jihadization." They usefully point out that most western al-Qaeda adherents aren't responding to directly-experienced deprivation or oppression, but are rather aggrieved middle-class men under the grip of ideology. (You can read the whole report here.)

Each step adequately describes the road taken by the extremists profiled by Bhatt and Silber. But that's largely because the process is itself a generic description of the process of joining any identity-oriented group. al-Qaeda adherents or al-Qaeda-inspired radicals are a maddeningly diverse bunch, extending in background from former high-tech engineers to Mary Kay cosmetics representatives to former metalheads. They can be second-generation U.S. or European Muslims, or converts.

As a result, describing patterns of "pre-jihadist" behavior inclines towards the generic, making it difficult to know what to do with the information. In a discussion of radical "incubators," for example, there's this:

These incubators serve as radicalizing agents for those who choose to pursue radicalization. They become their pit stops, "hangouts" and meeting places. Generally these locations, which together comprise the radical subculture of a community, are rife with extremist rhetoric. Though the locations can be mosques, more likely incubators include cafes, cab driver hangouts, flophouses, prisons, student associations, non-governmental organizations, hookah (water pipe) bars, butcher shops and bookstores. ...
The internet, with its thousands of extremist websites and chat-rooms, is a virtual incubator of its own. In fact, many of the extremists began their radical conversion while researching or just surfing in the cyber world.

That's not wrong. But it includes a lot of behavior that doesn't have anything to do with jihadism. And there the report concedes that finding just who is prone to pursue radicalization isn't something law enforcement can really do:

There is no useful profile to assist law enforcement or intelligence to predict who will follow this trajectory of radicalization. Rather, the individuals who take this course will begin as "unremarkable" from various walks of life.

As a result, it's hard to know what kind of action law enforcement can pursue here, short of monitoring every Muslim who hangs out at a hookah bar or has an internet connection. The report stops at calling it a "challenge" to figure out how "to identify, pre-empt and thus prevent homegrown terrorist attacks given the non-criminal element of its indicators." We may learn more next month: Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-CT) said in a statement today that he intends to hold hearings in September of his Senate Governmental Affairs Committee on today's "breakthrough" report.

Comments (35)

PeeJ wrote on August 15, 2007 6:10 PM:

One acronym sums it up... OMG! This country is doomed.

DaveB wrote on August 15, 2007 6:33 PM:

Now that Joementum's on our side, I am sure only good will come out of it.

Lieberman is desperately trying to stay relevant, even though he refuses to hold hearings on Katrina (like he promised) or any of the real gold mine of topics that Waxman, his House counterpart is panning through.

Anonymous wrote on August 15, 2007 6:36 PM:

Hmmm...this caught my eye:

"...aggrieved middle-class men under the grip of ideology."

You mean as opposed to aggrieved wealthy men under the grip of ideology, who wind up in positions of power and who practice their own form of terrorism?

danger wrote on August 15, 2007 6:38 PM:

I'll be sure to wear scary shirts with Arabic writing on it next time I hit the hookah bar down in Soho.

This report is just another excuse to harass innocent people.

biggerbox wrote on August 15, 2007 6:55 PM:

So, now we know how people become Jets fans. I've always wondered.

Isn't this the same NYPD that did such a fine job with protecting the rights of legitimate protesters during the GOP convention?

hogdred wrote on August 15, 2007 7:22 PM:

Maybe once we learn to identify early potential terrorist behavior, we'll see similar root psychological causes in kids who shoot up high schools

Florida Democrat wrote on August 15, 2007 7:33 PM:

This sounds like a precursor to an attempt to reign in the "radical" internet. Lieberman, and his new friends the radical right, are watching as liberalism spreads through the internet and it scares them.

The internet is the single greatest threat to the oligarchs in this country and abroad.

Florida Democrat wrote on August 15, 2007 7:37 PM:

The internet is the single greatest threat to the oligarchs in this country and abroad.

Emmanuel wrote on August 15, 2007 7:45 PM:

Soon they'll discover that most terrorists drink liquids and breathe oxygen on a frequent basis. They even watch "television" and read "books" to further indoctrinate themselves. Beware anyone carrying a book! They could be a terrorist or even worse, a liberal Democrat! 4 more years!

paul wrote on August 15, 2007 8:10 PM:

And of course it would be wrong to support people to work these kinds of places spreading the message that blowing up innocent people is a bad idea...

Jane wrote on August 15, 2007 8:41 PM:

Emmanuel: And just why did you think that Bushco was targetting libraries already?

SC: (Those who object stop reading already) fear

Mcboo wrote on August 15, 2007 8:54 PM:

**UPDATE**

Further investigation has lead officials to say that there are additional troubling trends noticed among the potential terrorists candidates including: breathing, eating, sleeping, occasionally picking ones nose then pretending you were just scratching an itch, and the illegal downloading of songs and at sometimes (depending on the available bandwidth) movies.

SC - sound as in this sounds like an Onion story only scarier

Garth wrote on August 15, 2007 9:31 PM:

i would like to invite everyone here to visit my blog No Exit at david.sullivan.blogspot.com

it's a political blog like my favorites, TPM, Balkinization, Kos, Obsidian Wings, No Comment, Informed Comment and the like...

any feedback is appreciated.

Garth wrote on August 15, 2007 9:31 PM:

i would like to invite everyone here to visit my blog No Exit at david-sullivan.blogspot.com

it's a political blog like my favorites, TPM, Balkinization, Kos, Obsidian Wings, No Comment, Informed Comment and the like...

any feedback is appreciated.

Garth wrote on August 15, 2007 9:33 PM:

i would like to invite everyone here to visit my blog No Exit at david-sullivan.blogspot.com

it's a political blog like my favorites, TPM, Balkinization, Kos, Obsidian Wings, No Comment, Informed Comment and the like...

any feedback is appreciated.

JD21 wrote on August 15, 2007 9:52 PM:

Strongly suggest if you are against war with Iran unless it's REALLY necessary to check out the petition at http://www.stopiranwar.com/ , a votevets.org site.

And watch its leader stand up to some Republican spinmeister who doesn't know anything except how to earn a ton of money as a lobbyist type. http://thinkprogress.org/2007/08/15/soltz-cheney-out-to-lunch-on-protecting-america/

greggp wrote on August 15, 2007 10:27 PM:

So, to review, the process is:

They ultimately come up with a four-stage process: pre-radicalization; self-identification with jihadism; indoctrination following exposure to jihadist literature or arguments; and, finally, "jihadization."

Isn't that the way the College Republicans work?

Michael Powe wrote on August 15, 2007 10:54 PM:

Gee, they could have read this book, written a book report and saved the taxpayers a lot of money.

Thanks.

Michael Powe wrote on August 15, 2007 10:58 PM:

Well, that is annoying, the URL was stripped out of my comment.

Try this book:

Understanding Terror Networks by Marc Sageman
http://www.powells.com/biblio/61-9780812238082-1

Thanks.

Anonymous wrote on August 15, 2007 11:18 PM:

"This sounds like a precursor to an attempt to reign in the "radical" internet. Lieberman, and his new friends the radical right, are watching as liberalism spreads through the internet and it scares them."

Of course, all the social networking sites have your political affiliation/Political Views listed, and all your friends' political affiliation listed, and all your friends' friends' political affiliation listed...

What a wonderful tool!

The Oracle wrote on August 16, 2007 12:21 AM:

"These incubators serve as radicalizing agents for those who choose to pursue radicalization. They become their pit stops, "hangouts" and meeting places. Generally these locations, which together comprise the radical subculture of a community, are rife with extremist rhetoric."

Geeee, sure sounds a whole lot like a description of Faux News and all the right-wing AM radio programs...as well as the Battle Cry Christian cult rock concerts.

And by my reckonin', all the wingnuts who watch or listen to these right-wing talking heads on radio or television, or attend these "death to the infidels" Christian cult rock concerts have achieved the third stage of radical extremism: indoctrination.

The same right-wing talking points repeated over and over and over again. Indoctrination. Brainwashing.

Just like the Nazi propagandists practiced, to properly indoctrinate German citizens into launching preemptive war against the rest of Europe and beyond. Just like the Communist propagandists practice, to properly indoctrinate their subjugated citizens into doing whatever the Communists want them to do, or else. Just like hardcore Islamicists practice, getting their true-believers to recite over and over again selected passages from the Koran, to properly indoctrinate them to believe and act a certain way, including "killing the infidels" if so ordered.

I'm a free-thinker. I'm a liberal. The herd mentality doesn't appeal to me. People or groups that try to "indoctrinate" me, attempt to brainwash me, can go stuff it.

The U.S. Constitution. The Bill of Rights. Our nation. Our democracy. Our inalienable right to live free from tyranny, no matter what kind, no matter how well-intentioned. This is what I consider to be our shared "family values" in American, land of the free and home of the brave.

Anonymous wrote on August 16, 2007 2:01 AM:

What is most alarming is to read the dichotomy between the hype of this report and the facts.

The hype seems intended more to deflect criticism of NYC spying on and illegally imprisoning activists.

The important facts ignored is that political enemies are created by the actions of governments, not by using the Internet. "Killing people creates enemies." It is that simple, just four words. The rest is just hype and rationalization. If those four words had been adhered to before Reagan began bombing people in the Near East, we may not have had the 9/11 attacks.

Even jihad happens in a context. Attaining peace is the solution.

LarryE wrote on August 16, 2007 2:41 AM:

Some time ago I came up with the concept of "generalization into triviality," the process of making a term mean so much that it really no longer means anything at all.

The "incubators" in this report are a good example. When pretty much anywhere you might find like-minded people becomes a potential "incubator" of radicalism, of what use is the term?

clin psych wrote on August 16, 2007 6:38 AM:

Well.... it's too late to stop. This non-muslim, white anglo saxon middle class patriotic american clinical psychologist has already been subverted and radicalized..... NO to NWO, NAU, Empire, global hegemony, the fraudulent War on Terra, the neocons, the neolibs, Criminal wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and (coming to a theater near you) Iran. NO to domestic spying. NO to the Police State. NO to Blackwater mercenaries. NO to the Department of Homeland (read Gestapo) Stooopidity, NO to 15 to 30 thousand homeland rat bast--d snitches. No to theocracy and the subversion/perversion of Christianity. And so much more.

TheraP wrote on August 16, 2007 9:12 AM:

That's the problem with ex post facto research.

Correlation is not the same as causality.

But when you hire government workers on the basis of ideology, you may not get people who know such differences.

bob wrote on August 16, 2007 5:26 PM:

So basically, places where Muslims hang out are now suspect (not just mosques, but hookah bars, Muslim cabbie hangouts, halal butcher shops, bookstores with books in Arabic, Muslim-friendly NGOs, Dearborn, Michigan, Middle Eastern restaurants and cafes, and certain neighborhoods in Queens and the Bronx).

SC: brain, use of which was not evident here.

Anonymous wrote on August 18, 2007 10:30 PM: